The Scientific Council issued an opinion on the possible scenarios for the post-containment period, thus making it possible to anticipate situations so as to be ready to react. Its president, Jean-François Delfraissy, is moving towards the optimistic scenario of a ” controlled epidemic “.
Controlled” epidemic, reconfiguration ruled out … The opinion of the President of the Scientific CouncilSummary
- To rule out the possibility of a “generalized reconfinement” in France
” We can say that currently, reasonably, the epidemic is controlled, ” said Jean-François Delfraissy, the president of the Scientific Council, on Friday, June 5 at the microphone of France Inter. ” This means, firstly, that the virus continues to circulate, contrary to what I sometimes hear. The virus continues to circulate in particular in certain regions, more obviously in the Paris region than in the southwest of France, but it travels at a low speed, “he said. ” Where we had roughly tens of thousands of cases, around 80,000 new cases per day at the beginning of March, we estimate that we are now around 1,000 cases approximately “.
4 possible scenarios
In a notice published on June 2, 2020, the Scientific Council detailed 4 possible scenarios for the post-containment period in order to prepare:
- A first favorable scenario : ” that of an epidemic under control in view of the available indicators, associated with the occurrence of localized clusters that can be controlled “, can be read in the opinion of the Council. Measures to combat epidemic must still be maintained;
- In a second scenario , the appearance of ” critical clusters, letting fear of a loss of control of the chains of contamination, and therefore of control of the epidemic itself”. Measures ” strict, early and localized ” should then be put in place ;
- In a third scenario , the situation would tilt ” towards a gradual and low-noise recovery of the epidemic, which is more difficult to identify. Indicators would then deteriorate without the chains of contamination being identified, let alone controlled. This scenario would require strict measures as well as the rapid activation of several P2R-COVID measures. The measures to be taken could still be envisaged on a regional scale if the indicators allow or at the national level “;
- In a fourth scenario , it would be “ the critical degradation of indicators”, translating “ a loss of control of the epidemic, and would require difficult decisions, leading to choosing between a generalized national confinement, making it possible to minimize direct mortality , and other collective, economic and social objectives, accompanied by significant direct mortality ”.
Questioned by BFMTV , Jean-François Delfraissy wanted to be reassuring: ” we are controlling the epidemic. This is good news, linked to confinement , to the measures of social distancing taken by our fellow citizens, probably to the fact that we are entering the summer period and that this virus is perhaps sensitive to a form of temperature. We have tools that make it possible to screen, to test, very largely, to isolate and trace contacts. But on the other side, the virus continues to circulate, the epidemic is not over. This virus will have to be eliminated “.
To rule out the possibility of a “generalized reconfinement” in France
Even if the Scientific Council has an optimistic view on the situation to come, there is no question of abandoning all sanitary measures. ” We are not going to go from black to white, but we are opening and we will continue to open from June 22, leaving a certain number of possibilities, and that’s good, life has to start again,” said the President of the Scientific Council. Asked by the Parisian about a potential general reconfiguration in the event of a second wave, Jean-François Delfraissy rules out this possibility. ” The first time, it was essential, we had no choice, but the price to pay is too heavy, ” the expert explained to the daily.